In less than 20 years’ time, France will pass a new demographic bar: in 2044 our population will reach an all-time high at 70 million inhabitants, before commencing a gradual decline. The true upheaval, however, is elsewhere.
By that time, the number of people aged 65 and over will have grown by more than 25% from 14 to 18 million, while the over-85 population will have soared by 70%. This unprecedented increase is not just an issue for our healthcare and housing policies. It will also shake up our living patterns and the use of the public realm, and most of all, of mobility.
Because public transport today stands at a watershed. How can we continue to live as a society if access to mobility becomes unequal between generations? How can our elders’ autonomy be guaranteed unless we already start inventing a range of transport services that anticipates these new needs? Acting today is the only way of properly answering these questions.
Today, seniors make an average of 2.4 trips per day, compared with 3.8 for working people. Their mobility is more local, less regular, often dictated by the need for healthcare or social interaction. And yet 35% of over-75s do not go anywhere some days. This is not the inevitable effect of age: it is more often a direct consequence a transport system that remains insufficiently tailored to their needs.
As a public transport operator, the Keolis Group wanted to understand how demographic change is likely to transform mobility. In local communities, the dedication of elected public officials has already given rise to many initiatives and innovative solutions. But without a major change of direction, collective mobility risks drying up for want of sufficient ridership and stable financial resources. Indeed, the drop in the working population, and therefore the lower revenue generated from employers’ transport contributions, are compounded by another constraint: that of a social fare policy, which, while entirely legitimate, has a significant impact, with a growing number of older people benefitting from free or discounted travel. Seniors already account for 22% of concessionary fare users on public transport. In 2044, this figure could climb to over 30%.
In these circumstances, demographic ageing lays bare the fragility of the economic equilibrium of public transport, making it even more essential to introduce sustainable funding to safeguard its future. The recent “Ambition France Transports” conference was in this respect a pivotal moment, laying the foundations for sustainable financing and strengthened governance, which are so vital to preserving the future of public transport in the light of demographic challenges.
But instead of a threat, we should view ageing as an opportunity. A chance to accelerate a transformation that is already underway. Three levers are essential to this end. Place accessibility for all at the heart of investments, given that only 42% of French urban transport networks currently claim to be fully accessible. Reinvent more flexible and transparent services that are both collective and tailored to individual needs, such as on-demand transport, autonomous mobility and patient transport. Adapt our timetables, infrastructure, interfaces and flow management.
It is also an issue for local communities. In densely populated areas, this means making services easier to understand, with more staff on the ground. In rural and suburban areas, where more than 70% of seniors live, the aim will be to guarantee a fundamental right: the right to travel, even if it does not obey the logic of immediate profitability.
Finally, there is a human challenge. Because, in a society where the population pyramid is getting top-heavy, it will also become necessary to hire, train and retain a new generation of mobility staff, while promoting the employment of older people in our professions.
Ageing is not a bleak prospect. It is a reality that we all have a responsibility to address together: the government, local authorities, associations, citizens and businesses.
The saying goes that a civilisation is measured by how it treats its eldest members. In that case, we must make public transport one of the pillars of an ageing-friendly society: by consolidating services, guaranteeing sustainable funding, hiring and training the talent of the future, and continuing to improve services and their accessibility to all.
La Tribune interview
